Millennials are the demographic most sought after and talked about by political parties these days, so the latest poll from the Angus Reid Insitute must have Liberal Party HQ worried.
Not only does the poll show a ten point lead for the Conservatives nationally, 40% support for the CPC to 30% for the LPC, but there are some bad breakdowns when you look beyond the headline numbers. Regionally, the Liberals only have a significant lead in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Demographics wise, the Liberals don’t lead in a single age group, not even millennials.
Consider that, in the last poll that Angus Reid Institute took before the last election the Liberals lead among those aged 18-34 by a margin of 43% for the LPC and in second was the NDP at 23%. The Conservatives were in third spot with just 22% support among those aged 18-34.
That surge of young people voting combined with drops for the Conservatives in their lead among those 55+ really helped Justin Trudeau and the Liberals sweep to power.
Two and a half years in and now young voters have looked and found Trudeau wanting.
According to the latest poll of 5,423 Canadian voters aged 18 and over, a massive sample size, the Conservatives and Liberals are now tied among 18-34 year-olds.
If an election were held today, 30% of voters 18-34 would back Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives while 30% would back Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are well back in third at 16%.
That is a stunning reversal of fortunes.
Trudeau, who doubles as minister of youth, has spent almost as much time courting young voters as he has spent time courting women voters. To see his support level fall by 13 points among this key demographic is shocking.