The tide is turning to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives as Justin Trudeau and his Liberals enter the last year of their mandate.
The talk about the time of Trudeau’s win in 2015 was that he was in for at least two terms and that the next Conservative leader would basically have no chance of winning in the next election.
History would favour that.
Yet with a year to go, four polls in the last week favour the Conservatives over the Liberals. Scheer over Trudeau.
A pattern emerges.
First there was the Angus Reid poll that I wrote about here. It showed 64% of Canadians would vote for or consider voting for the Conservatives compared to 52% that would do the same for the Liberals and 44% for the NDP. The Conservatives also had stronger base support saying they definitely would back the Conservatives.
That was one poll but a promising poll for the Conservatives.
Then came the Forum poll.
Forum was dismissed as an outlier by many.
The Forum poll put the Conservatives at 41%, the Liberals at 32% and the NDP at 15%.
That would be according to Forum’s Lorne Bozinoff, a Conservative majority in the neighbourhood of 184 seats to the Liberals 113.
From outlier to trendsetter.
So that poll was dismissed until John Wright’s poll for Dart Insight and Communications.
That poll shows that just 29% believe Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
The percentage saying it is time for a change in government is 50%. That is a dangerous number for any government seeking re-election.
Why are Canadians in this mood?
From the Dart news release.
A majority (68%) of Canadians believe that the Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues.
As for the vote numbers, they peg the Conservatives at 38% to the Liberals 30% and the NDP at 17%.
As with many polls of the last few years, much of the Liberal support comes from Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Trudeau can’t win anymore seats in Atlantic Canada, they already have them.
The government party has lost support everywhere else.
Trudeau is out of touch.
Finally there is the Ipsos poll.
That poll puts the Liberals ahead by 1 point, 36% to the Conservatives 35% and the NDP at 20%.
This shows the Conservative gains in other polls is not a fluke. Also, the regional breakdowns in this poll would give the Conservatives a very strong minority in my view or even a small majority.
That is correct, given regional voting patterns, I think this poll points to a Conservative government.
The Liberal support is so concentrated in areas like Atlantic Canada, Quebec and major urban centres that the Liberals are still vulnerable.
The Conservatives will sweep the prairie provinces, taking seats from the Liberals along the way, they remain competitive in British Columbia and are at 22% in Quebec which means likely seat pick-ups.
Then comes Ontario.
If Scheer and the Conservatives tie the Liberals in Ontario then the Conservatives win that province.
Trudeau is too concentrated in Toronto but losing the seat rich suburbs.
Darrell Bricker with Ipsos says Trudeau is losing ground because his priorities are not aligned with the voting public.
“What’s making the election situation competitive is the fact that the Liberals seem to be out of step with what the public is looking for,” Bricker told Global.
While voters say the top issues are healthcare, taxes and the economy, Trudeau is focused on issues that don’t resonate as much like climate change gender equality and Indigenous reconciliation.
Trudeau, the elitist, out of step with regular voters?
Let’s hope it continues for the next year, then we can kiss him goodbye.