The news that the latest Angus Reid poll would see the Conservatives take 40% of the popular vote to the Liberals 30% is a surprising story, almost as surprising as millennial voters fleeing the Liberals to the Conservatives.
But the big news lies in the regional breakdowns which show a near wipe out for the Liberals west of Quebec.
The Angus Reid Institute poll surveyed 5,423 Canadians between March 6-15, 2018. That is a big poll and that means big regional breakdowns with smaller margins of error, meaning if they are paying attention the big brains at Liberal HQ should be sweating.
The regional numbers show the Liberals remain strong in Atlantic Canada, that they have weakened in Quebec and would lose a massive amount of seats in Ontario.
Take a look at this chart from the poll.
Angus Reid pegs Liberal support in Quebec at just 27%, the NDP and Conservatives at 23% a piece. That would likely see the Liberals lose some seats. But next door in Ontario, where the Liberals currently hold 80 of 121 seats, things are looking down for Trudeau’s party.
With Scheer and the Conservatives taking 45% support to the Liberals 31% it is likely that the LPC and CPC could change seat counts, meaning 80 or so for the Conservatives and 33 for the Liberals. That would be a 47 seat drop for the Liberals.
In Manitoba where the Liberals hold 7 of 14 seats they would likely hold at least 5 of them in and around Winnipeg but drop at least two.
The Saskatchewan numbers are bad enough that Ralph Goodale could be wiped out and in Alberta, say goodbye to the four seats they picked up last time even without the claims of sexual misconduct against Hehr and Kang.
Which brings us to British Columbia where it is a tighter race but with the NDP holding a respectable 22% support to the Conservatives at 33% and 32% for the Liberals I would expect the Liberals to hold some seats in Vancouver and lose in the suburbs on vote splits to the Conservatives. The rest of the province would be divided between the Conservatives and NDP.
The Liberals have been focused on Justin Trudeau’s personal popularity, which is waning. They were able to bank on Quebec and Atlantic Canada with some strong showings elsewhere, that has all dissipated.
As I told Shachi Kurl, Executive Director of the Angus Reid Institute, no party can win a majority with just Atlantic Canada.
Listen to the interview here.