Is a blue wave coming to America to sideswipe the Donald and his agenda?
If the polls and history are any indication, the answer is no.
That doesn’t mean the Democrats won’t win the House of Representatives but the idea of a blue wave sweeping the Democrats to power that many in the media have played up is false.
Right now the generic congressional ballot question has the Democrats up over the Republicans by about 7 points. In fact the Real Clear Politics Average of the last batch of public polls says the Democrats lead Republicans by 7.3%.
Don’t expect that to be the final result.
Over the last four mid-terms the Republicans have outperformed the Real Clear Politics average of polls by at least three points.
The only time they didn’t was in 2010 when they swept Congress, just not as emphatically as expected by the polls.
If history is any guide, the Democrats will probably end up ahead by 3.5% to 4.3%.
Is that enough?
That will depend on where those votes land. If they are ahead by wide margins in districts they already hold then it won’t help them take back the House.
Right now the Republicans hold 235 districts, the Democrats 193 and there are 7 vacancies.
That means the Democrats need to flip at least 18 districts from the Republicans and win the vacancies just to get a one seat majority.
Given the support the Democrats have in the media, the non-stop drumbeat of anti-Trump stories, you would think Republicans would be wiped out.
Instead they will hold the Senate and could keep the House of Representatives as well.
Media bias on parade.
Consider that the Democrats have the full support of MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, Washington Post and most major daily newspapers.
That doesn’t count the major news networks.
Millions of Americans, especially those not obsessed with politics, still get their news from the big three networks. According to the Media research Council, the coverage of Trump by ABC, CBS and NBC is consistently more than 90% negative.
Sure, the Republicans have Fox News and talk radio but their audiences, while large, pale in comparison to all the rest.
So why is it close?
To quote Bill Clinton, it’s the economy stupid.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 52.6% think the United States is generally heading in the wrong direction but 44.7% think the American economy is heading in the right direction.
Unemployment is down to an amazing 3.7% overall with Black unemployment at levels not seen in decades at 6.2% and Hispanic unemployment at 4.4%. Black unemployment was in double digits for most of Obama’s time in office.
Voters are telling pollsters that the economy and immigration are two of the most important issues they are considering when voting.
Those are the issues that Donald Trump has been talking about.
He’s been bragging about the state of the economy and warning about turning back to Democrat policies of higher taxes and increased regulation.
He’s also been promising to stop the caravan of thousands of migrants marching from Central America, through Mexico, and promising to crash through the Mexico-America border.
Trump vs. the Dems.
Trump says he will stop it, Democrats have spoken about welcoming it.
And when they aren’t talking about things like the caravan, Democrats have been talking about using their majority to impeach Trump and launch more investigations into Russia and collusion.
The Democrats could still pull it off, they could win the House.
But it never should have been in question.
If Trump and the Republicans were as bad as the constant media drum beat tells the American public, then the Democrats would be looking at a massive majority in the House and taking back the Senate as well.
Maybe, just maybe, Trump and his policies are more popular than you’ve been led to believe.