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The polling for the Conservatives hasn’t been great lately. They are down on average about seven points but those averages by the polling aggregators include some polls that should be completely ignored.
That said, you can’t ignore major firms like Leger or Ipsos each showing a six point lead for the Liberals.
The two most favourable polls for the Conservatives come from Innovative, which has them up by one point 38% to 37% and Abacus which has had the two parties tied at 39% for the last few weeks.
Looking at the regional breakdown from Innovative, this isn’t enough for the Conservatives to win based on the Ontario numbers.
The Liberals will do a near sweep in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives will do the same in Alberta - given the number of seats they cancel each other out. The Conservatives need to win all 14 seats in Saskatchewan, about 7 in Manitoba and have a good showing in British Columbia.
But even with all that and taking say 12 seats in Quebec, they will need about 80 seats in Ontario and being tied at 41% with the Liberals is unlikely to deliver that.
The Abacus numbers for Ontario show the Conservatives competitive but still trailing the Liberals in the most populous province in the country.
The Liberals clearly have the advantage with three weeks to go, but this campaign is far from over.
The electorate is still fluid and the Liberal vote at this point is soft compared to the Conservatives. The Liberals are dominating with voters 55+ but the Conservatives lead with Gen X and Millennials.
There are more people in these two groups than in the Boomer category.
If I was the Conservatives, I’d be launching a campaign to get all of their supporters in these demographic groups - especially in Ontario’s suburbs - to make sure they bring a friend to the polls, preferably at an advance poll.
Three weeks to go, the debates have yet to happen, a week is a lifetime in politics.
